Who will replace Vaughan Gething? The runners and riders to be Wales’ next first minister

Vaughan Gething has announced that he is stepping down as the first minister of Wales, following a series of controversies that left his position untenable.

All eyes now turn to who might replace him – and how that process will work.

While it is too soon to know for sure, who are the most likely candidates to run for Wales’ top job?

Jeremy Miles was narrowly beaten by Mr Gething to the role of Welsh Labour leader in March.

Mr Miles, who is the Member of Senedd (MS) for Neath, was given a cabinet role by Mr Gething as secretary for economy, energy and Welsh language.

But on Monday, Mr Miles repeatedly failed to back Mr Gething in an interview with ITV Wales.

On Tuesday morning, he became one of four cabinet members to announce their resignations, prompting the first minister to quit.

During the Welsh Labour leadership contest in the spring, Mr Miles secured the backing of 16 Labour MSs, versus Mr Gething who had the support of 10.

But Mr Gething gained the backing of Wales’ largest trade union, Unite, which secured his win.

Mr Miles seems the most likely candidate to take over as first minister, but Mr Gething’s supporters would be opposed to a straightforward coronation and will instead push for a leadership contest.

Ken Skates, who has served as the MS for Clwyd South since 2011, is an ally of Vaughan Gething.

He has held a number of ministerial roles, including his current position as cabinet secretary for north Wales and transport.

The former journalist, from Wrexham, was tipped to potentially run to become first minister in 2018. In the end, he supported Mark Drakeford after ruling himself out of the race.

Mr Skates temporarily stepped away from the Welsh government cabinet in 2021 to gain a better work-life balance, claiming he would still be in his role if job-sharing was allowed.

Mick Antoniw is a senior figure on the left of the Welsh Labour Party, who backed Mr Miles over Mr Gething to become first minister.

Mr Antoniw, who went on to serve in Mr Gething’s cabinet as the counsel general, another of the four cabinet members who stepped down on Tuesday morning.

He previously criticised Mr Gething’s decision to accept donations towards his leadership campaign from a company owned by a man convicted of illegally dumping waste.

Mr Antoniw, who is the MS for Pontypridd, was formally reprimanded earlier this month for an “offensive” tweet about the Conservatives.

Hannah Blythyn was sacked from the cabinet by Mr Gething in May after messages from the Covid pandemic were leaked to the website Nation.Cymru.

The leaked messages showed Mr Gething claiming he would delete all correspondence from an iMessage group of Welsh ministers.

Ms Blythyn, who has been the MS for Delyn since 2016, categorically denied being the source of the leak.

And last week, Nation.Cymru came out and insisted Ms Blythyn was not their source.

Mr Gething later said he “never tried to claim” she was the direct source and said the evidence showed messages given to Nation.Cymru came from her phone.

Ms Blythyn, who has held multiple ministerial roles since becoming an MS, backed Mr Miles in the most recent leadership contest but is thought to have toyed with the idea of running for the leadership herself in the past.

There would be pressure for any contest to include a woman, especially as Welsh Labour was criticised in the spring for an all-male head-to-head.

Another potential name is Eluned Morgan, who ran to be the Welsh Labour leader in 2018, but sat out the last race.

Ms Morgan has served as the secretary for health since 2021, first appointed under Mark Drakeford and continuing in the post under Mr Gething.

The MS for Mid and West Wales is also a member of the House of Lords and was previously a Member of the European Parliament.

She backed Mr Gething to become first minister in the most recent leadership race and previously also defended Mr Gething’s decision to sack Hannah Blythyn.

Huw Irranca-Davies is a former MP who became the MS for Ogmore in 2016.

He has held ministerial positions in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay, including his current role as secretary for climate change and rural affairs.

In 2018, he launched a bid to become the leader of Welsh Labour, but lost out to Mark Drakeford.

Mr Gething’s announcement will trigger another Welsh Labour leadership contest – the second in the space of a year.

Mr Gething said he would stay in his role as first minister until the Senedd chooses a successor, adding that the executive of Welsh Labour would determine the rules and timetable of the contest.

The Senedd “will then need to decide whether it wishes to support that person”, he said on Tuesday.

“Early in the autumn a new person will be stood here as the leader of Welsh Labour, and this place will need to decide whether to elect that person as a candidate to be first minister,” he said.

There will be some formalities – at some point we would expect Welsh Labour to agree a timetable.

And Mr Gething will have to formally resign to the King.

Another question arises over whether the opposition would accept the new first minister.

There would need to be a vote confirming the next Welsh Labour leader to the top job.

In the past, the opposition has effectively allowed this to go ahead, but the numbers are such that they could frustrate the process in a tied vote.

In theory, this could force a Senedd election.